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论文编号：	9400
作者编号：	2120152451
上传时间：	2017/6/21 10:45:00
中文题目：	高管权力、内部控制质量与自愿披露盈余预测行为
英文题目：	An Empirical Research on Relationship between Internal Control Quality, Executive Power and Earnings Forecast
指导老师：	程新生
中文关键字：	自愿披露盈余预测；内部控制质量；高管权力
英文关键字：	Management Earnings Forecast；Internal Control Quality；Executive Power
中文摘要：	我国上市公司盈余预测相关的法律机制起步晚，仍存在很多不足。1998年证监会推出年报预亏制度，2002年发展成预亏、预警、预增的预告制度，再到2007年颁布的《上市公司信息披露管理办法》，业绩预告制度日趋成熟。现如今上市公司普遍都存在两权分离，也就是所有者与经营者不完全一致的情况。所有权与经营权的分离加剧了代理成本高和信息不对称问题。这种情况下，公司积极进行信息披露，向外部投资者、债权人等利益相关者传递有关公司绩效的会计信息，有利于减少这种信息不对称，降低了外部人的投资不确定性以及债权人的债务风险，会相应降低所要求的的投资回报率，降低代理成本。 本文将2013-2015年度中国沪深两市所有A股上市公司作为样本，研究发现，在控制了公司规模、资产负债率、总资产收益率、分析师关注度、预测消息类型、是否有四大会计师事务所审计等相关因素后，内部控制质量水平较高的公司，会更倾向于自愿披露管理层盈余预测；内控水平低的上市公司，其主动发布盈余预测的可能性较小。在加入高管权力这一调节变量后发现，高管权力将会削弱内部控制质量对自愿披露盈余预测的正向影响。高管所有权权力会增强内部控制质量对自愿披露盈余预测正向影响。高管个人能力权力会削弱内部控制质量对自愿披露盈余预测正向促进作用。高管的组织权力会削弱内部控制质量对自愿披露盈余预测正向促进作用。 本文的研究成果为内部控制对上市公司披露业绩预告行为的影响提供了理论证据，不仅能为内部控制高低所带来的后果提供新思路，反过来可以从是否披露盈余预测的角度验证上市公司内部控制环节到底是“摆设”还是可以被良好实施。本文的研究成果可以为内部控制机制的好坏影响上市公司自愿进行盈余预测的因素有了进一步探讨，为提高上市公司预测主动性、减少投资者投资风险、有助于资本市场好运行发展提供了帮助，同时使得政府和监管部门制定法规政策用以增强内控体系建设时提供完整的理论和数据支撑。
英文摘要：	The legal policy related to China's listed companies earnings forecast started late, there are still many deficiencies. In 1998, the CSRC launched the Annual Report Prerequisite System. In 2002, it developed a pre-loss, early warning and pre-increase notice system. Then, it promulgated the "Measures for the Administration of Information Disclosure of Listed Companies" promulgated in 2007, and the performance forecast system became more and more mature. Now listed companies are generally the separation of the two powers, that is, the owner and the operator is not exactly the same situation. The separation of ownership and management rights exacerbates the problem of high agency costs and information asymmetry. In this case, the company actively conduct information disclosure, to the external investors, creditors and other stakeholders to pass on the company's performance accounting information, help to reduce this information asymmetry, reducing the external investment uncertainty and the creditors Debt risk, will reduce the required return on investment, reduce agency costs. In this paper, all the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2013-2015 as sample, the study found that the control of the company size, asset-liability ratio, total assets yield, analyst attention, predict the type of message, whether there are four Accounting firms and other relevant factors, the quality of internal control of the higher level of the company, will be more inclined to voluntarily disclose the management of earnings forecast; low level of internal control of listed companies, its initiative to release management earnings forecast is less likely. After adding the regulatory variables of executive power, it is found that the better the quality of internal control, the greater the likelihood that the management of the listed company will voluntarily disclose the earnings forecast under the same conditions. The executive power will undermine the positive impact of the quality of internal control on the management's voluntary disclosure of earnings forecasts. Executives' ownership authority will enhance the positive impact of internal control quality on the management's voluntary disclosure of earnings forecasts. Executives' individual competencies can undermine the quality of internal control and promote the positive effect of the voluntary disclosure of earnings forecasts. The organizational authority of the executive will weaken the quality of the internal control to promote the positive effect of the voluntary disclosure of the management. The results of this paper provide theoretical evidence for the impact of internal control on management performance notation, which can not only provide new ideas for the consequences of internal control, but in turn can be verified from the perspective of management's disclosure of earnings forecasts. Control links in the end is the "furnishings" or can be well implemented. The research results of this paper can be used to further explore the factors that the management's voluntary earnings forecast for the internal control mechanism. To improve the management initiative and reduce the investment risk of the investors, it will help the capital market to run well. While allowing the government and regulators to develop regulatory policies to enhance the internal control system to provide a complete theoretical and data support.
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